Will the State of Israel provoke or directly cause the current regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran to collapse and be replaced by a new government by the end of 2025?

The Islamic Republic of Iran has ruled Iran since 1979. It has survived a war with Iraq and several popular revolts that it has brutally suppressed.

Israel can take direct military action against the regime such as an air strike on economic targets, or it can pursue covert operations to destabilize or outright destroy the regime.

I believe it will be difficult to disguise Israeli involvement in either case. Even if the Israeli actions are not the final actions that lead to regime change this will resolve as yes.

If anyone has additional questions or alternative hypotheses to propose please do so in the comments.

Update 2024-20-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use the Syrian civil war as an analogue for resolution criteria. A Yes resolution would occur if:

The current government/dictator flees

The military stops fighting

Territory becomes controlled by various factions

If there is ambiguity in determining these conditions, the creator will wait for more information before resolving.