This market is supplimental to "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?":

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory

[link preview]I found a few problems with main COVID market including a long resolution threshold (17 years) and an inactive market creator. I believe the long resolution time might be the primary culprit for the YES market skew.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if clear and definitive evidence is presented by investigators of a lab leak. Evidence of the potential for a leak including evidence of irregular or faulty containment practices... will not be regarded as evidence of a leak. This evidence needs to be widely accepted by the scientific community (>95%) and by the political leadership of >80% of the world's countries. I would interpret moves by global health organizations to develop new standards for funding, containment, communication... as potential evidence that the global political leadership was starting to accept the leak theory as probable.

This market resolves as NO if any theory for zoonotic origin gains near universal scientific acceptance to explain the origin for SARS-CoV-2 (>95%). This market would also resolve as NO if there is no clear and definitive YES resolution by the close market date.

This market will only resolve as YES or NO.

Clarifications: Both a scientific and political consensus are required for a YES resolution. I understand that it might raise the bar slightly but this kind of consensus is not without precedent. I have also clarified the terms of the political consensus as requiring ">80% of the world's countries".