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In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
50%
About Even
Yes

Question description #

Resolves positively if there is an AI which can succeed at a wide variety of computer games (eg shooters, strategy games, flight simulators). Its programmers can have a short amount of time (days, not months) to connect it to the game. It doesn't get a chance to practice, and has to play at least as well as an amateur human who also hasn't gotten a chance to practice (this might be very badly) and improve at a rate not too far off from the rate at which the amateur human improves (one OOM is fine, just not millions of times slower).

As long as it can do this over 50% of the time, it's okay if there are a few games it can't learn.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters444
VolumeM360k

Capture #

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In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-17

Resolves positively if there is an AI which can succeed at a wide variety of computer games (eg shooters, strategy games, flight simulators). Its programmers can have a short amount of time (days, not months) to connect it to the game. It doesn't get...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 444
Volume: M360k

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