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Will Scott Alexander be removed from Substack before 2030

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Another attempted operationalization of scandal markets. Resolves YES if Substack kicks Scott off the platform, or Scott choses to leave the platform under circumstances that make it seem likely that Substack would have kicked them off if they didn't leave themselves.

This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters11
VolumeM526

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will Scott Alexander be removed from Substack before 2030
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-08

Another attempted operationalization of scandal markets. Resolves YES if Substack kicks Scott off the platform, or Scott choses to leave the platform under circumstances that make it seem likely that Substack would have kicked them off if they didn't...

Last updated: 2025-05-08
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M526

Embed #

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