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Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
55%
About Even
Yes

Question description #

A responsible scaling policy (RSP) or risk-informed development policy (RDP) is a framework adopted by companies like Anthropic and OpenAI that aims to ensure that they do not release catastrophically unsafe AIs. Such a framework defines levels of concerning capabilities and corresponding types of safety mitigations that would be adopted, and compliance is monitored through ongoing evaluations.

Will a major AI company adopt an “RSP for AI consciousness” by the end of 2029? This would involve:

Defining features or indicators of consciousness to be monitored

Outlining mitigation measures to avoid suffering or conscious AIs

See also: Project ideas: Sentience and rights of digital minds (substack.com)

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IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters11
VolumeM205

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Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?
55%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-03-09

A responsible scaling policy (RSP) or risk-informed development policy (RDP) is a framework adopted by companies like Anthropic and OpenAI that aims to ensure that they do not release catastrophically unsafe AIs. Such a framework defines levels of...

Last updated: 2025-03-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M205

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