“announce” means Anthropic or its leadership put out public messaging that clearly, credibly, and without hedging, asserts one of their AI systems is ASL-3
“ASL-3” refers to Anthropic’s own Responsible Scaling Policy, which describes AI Safety Level 3 (ASL-3) as follows:
ASL-3 refers to systems that substantially increase the risk of catastrophic misuse compared to non-AI baselines (e.g. search engines or textbooks) OR that show low-level autonomous capabilities.
If Anthropic announces one of their AI systems has achieved ASL-3 before the end of 2025, this resolves YES. Otherwise, resolves NO on 1 Jan 2026.
See also:
[markets]
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 36 |
| Volume | M1.8k |
“announce” means Anthropic or its leadership put out public messaging that clearly, credibly, and without hedging, asserts one of their AI systems is ASL-3
“ASL-3” refers to Anthropic’s own Responsible Scaling Policy, which describes AI Safety Level...