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Will AGI undergo a hard take-off?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
23%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Hard take-off defined as rapid self-improvement, in a matter of hours or days, so that it gradually and quickly becomes superhuman at every cognitive task. I would consider it soft takeoff if it takes more than 2 months.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters18
VolumeM1.5k

Capture #

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Will AGI undergo a hard take-off?
23%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-20

Hard take-off defined as rapid self-improvement, in a matter of hours or days, so that it gradually and quickly becomes superhuman at every cognitive task. I would consider it soft takeoff if it takes more than 2 months.

Last updated: 2025-03-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M1.5k

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<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-fbOFLTWecQyy8z3y5Fcp" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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