The Waves Arisen is a Naruto fanfic with rationalist themes: https://wertifloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/chapter-1/

There is sometimes speculation about whether the author Wertifloke is a pseudonym of noted rationalist fanfic author Eliezer Yudkowsky. Let's bet on it!

This market is conditional on strong evidence coming out in favor of one outcome or the other. This market will trust Eliezer Yudkowsky's honor not to lie, and if he makes a relevant joke, to admit that it was a joke when asked. Likewise it will trust the word of others with a strong record of commitment to the truth.

Example resolutions:

Eliezer Yudkowsky comes forward and claims authorship: market resolves YES

Eliezer Yudkowsky comes forward and disclaims authorship: market resolves NO

Eliezer Yudkowsky makes a post on the subject that he admits is a joke: no influence on resolution of market

Another person makes a credible claim to authorship, providing e.g. earlier drafts of chapters, etc: market resolves to NO

The official website is updated to mention that the author is not Eliezer Yudkowsky: market resolves to NO

No strong evidence is published by the end date: market resolves N/A

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