We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it. The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.
Similar markets for various amounts of warming:
2 degrees
3 degrees
5 degrees
8 degrees
10 degrees
15 degrees
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 12 |
| Volume | M527 |
The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it. The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.
Similar markets for...