We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
To resolve this, I will look at the huggingface Chatbot Arena Leaderboad and see if GPT-4-Turbo's ELO is within the top 20. If it is, this market resolves as yes. If not, then no.
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 40 |
| Volume | M9.9k |
To resolve this, I will look at the huggingface Chatbot Arena Leaderboad and see if GPT-4-Turbo's ELO is within the top 20. If it is, this market resolves as yes. If not, then no.
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard