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Will we get AGI before 2030?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
56%
About Even
Yes

Question description #

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030

Here are markets with the same criteria:

@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 (this question)

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048

Related markets:

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035

Other questions for 2030:

@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa

@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4

@/RemNi/will-vladimir-putin-be-the-leader-o-52c0e8d8ea7f

@/RemNi/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-e48b02725ad9

@/RemNi/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n-32f2cbfe20ce@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor

@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440

@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594

Solar system exploration questions:

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-d94ab8bbb580

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-78e59fa4805f

@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c

@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-80f53d888d58

Other points of reference for AGI:

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters249
VolumeM91k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will we get AGI before 2030?
56%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-16

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...

Last updated: 2025-06-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 249
Volume: M91k

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