Resolves Yes if Manifold announces (or enacts) a closure, merger, or any other plan that would result in the site/business shutting down or substantially changing course in a "smaller future" direction, before 1 July 2025. Announcing "Maintenance mode", or "Acquired by ____", or anything similar would all count, even if the site would continue to run.
If there is a 'funeral service' for Manifold at Manifest 2025, that also resolves Yes, but only if over half of the Manifold employees participate in the ceremony and at least one of them has a speaking part.
Bring the proof to the comment section. Resolves No on 1 July 2025 if nothing happens.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 31 |
| Volume | M12k |
Resolves Yes if Manifold announces (or enacts) a closure, merger, or any other plan that would result in the site/business shutting down or substantially changing course in a "smaller future" direction, before 1 July 2025. Announcing "Maintenance...