might be resolved based partially on vibes / second-hand information, might resolve early (if it happens)
Update 2025-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
YES will be resolved if:
3 reports of American homebrewers being arrested (considered yes on 1-2 reports depending on other information and the number of American homebrewers).
Significant actions making it harder or riskier to obtain HRT from international sources, such as a large fraction of packages seized or a significant number of arrests (>10) of people ordering from them.
A significant number of federal arrests for possession without a prescription (>10).
NO will be resolved if there is little enforcement against grey/black-market HRT.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 11 |
| Volume | M489 |
might be resolved based partially on vibes / second-hand information, might resolve early (if it happens)
Update 2025-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
YES will be resolved if:
3 reports of American homebrewers...