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Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.
[image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before 2030?
Same question except:
before end of 2024
before end of 2025
before end of 2026
before end of 2027
before end of 2028
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 66 |
| Volume | M10k |
Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.
[image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a...