If the National Bureau of Economic Analysis says that a recession started before election day 2024 and a Democrat wins the election, this market resolves to YES.
I'll wait until September 1st 2025 whether NBER calls a recession. Then I'll resolve to N/A.
I'll rely on whatever the consensus of news outlets calls the election for (AP, Fox News, CBS News, ABC News, and DecisionDeskHQ).
I may bet on this market.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 10 |
| Volume | M3.4k |
If the National Bureau of Economic Analysis says that a recession started before election day 2024 and a Democrat wins the election, this market resolves to YES.
I'll wait until September 1st 2025 whether NBER calls a recession. Then I'll resolve to...