We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things
The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in Rebooting AI."
Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.
Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 117 |
| Volume | M45k |
The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things
The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations,...