Following October 7 events, there are currently 101 Israeli hostages in Gaza strip.
This question resolve YES if at the end of 2025, the Wikipedia page of Israel Hamas Hostage Crisis, say that there is at least one Israeli hostage in Gaza that were abducted in oct 7 (not including the 4 abducted earlier).
Otherwise, this question will resolve as NO.
If there are overwelming evidence (according to global media) that all the hostages are dead, this will also resolve as no.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war_hostage_crisis#:~:text=Holding%20hostages%3A&text=72%20hostages%20were%20reportedly%20killed,other%20four%20hostages%20captured%20earlier
Update 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Details:
To resolve as NO, there must be clear evidence such as official declarations from the state of Israel stating that all remaining hostages are dead, or definitive actions by Hamas indicating no live hostages remain.
If Hamas claims to still have live hostages and there is no contradictory evidence, the market will resolve as YES.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 133 |
| Volume | M78k |
Following October 7 events, there are currently 101 Israeli hostages in Gaza strip.
This question resolve YES if at the end of 2025, the Wikipedia page of Israel Hamas Hostage Crisis, say that there is at least one Israeli hostage in Gaza that were...