We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
It doesn't need to be a formal charge of a crime, it could also be something like a sexual assault allegation.
The allegation must be specific, like "I was attacked on [date] at [place]", it can't be "I heard a rumor that Scott once did something that made someone uncomfortable". And the alleged behavior must actually be a felony if it were to be proven in court, it can't just be "a bad thing".
I'll be broad with what counts as a "mainstream news outlet", it just can't be "a blog post from someone with 18 readers", or infowars.
This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 12 |
| Volume | M871 |
It doesn't need to be a formal charge of a crime, it could also be something like a sexual assault allegation.
The allegation must be specific, like "I was attacked on [date] at [place]", it can't be "I heard a rumor that Scott once did something...