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Will we discover a chess player with ELO > 1500 cheating in an over-the-board chess tournament using anal devices by 2025?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
6%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description #

I don't play a lot of chess so if there are ambiguity, assume I was not aware. If it is ambiguous and no clarifications were made beforehand, then I will resolve with my best judgement, following the spirit of the market.

Resolves YES if there is conclusive evidence that a chess player with FIDE rating > 1500 have cheated by putting any device(s) that can transmit information up their ass, during an OTB tournament match, before EOY 2025. DOESN'T COUNT IF THEY GOT CAUGHT BEFOREHAND.

Conclusive Evidence: hard to define so here is an non-exhaustive list

we got the anal beads/butt plug straight from their ass

An x-ray scanner got a photo of the beads

The organizers claim that the player have cheated using anal beads

2023/12/23: Shoving anything into the ass counts, not just beads

2023/12/23: Artificial anus counts as their ass if the player was forced to get one from surgery due to their medical condition. Otherwise it doesn't count.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters21
VolumeM935

Capture #

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Will we discover a chess player with ELO > 1500 cheating in an over-the-board chess tournament using anal devices by 2025?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-29

I don't play a lot of chess so if there are ambiguity, assume I was not aware. If it is ambiguous and no clarifications were made beforehand, then I will resolve with my best judgement, following the spirit of the market.

Resolves YES if there is...

Last updated: 2025-05-29
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 21
Volume: M935

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