At the time of writing, Paul Christiano's probability estimate for "irreversible catastrophe like human extinction" as a result of AGI misalignment is "around 10-20%". Will he publicly revise his P(AGI doom) upwards to over 50% before 2025?
Videos or forum posts of him stating so before 31/12/2025 PST will result in this market being resolved YES (if and only if the evidence can be shared publicly), otherwise the market will be resolved NO.
Source of quotation: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hw26MrLuhGWH7kBLm/ai-alignment-is-distinct-from-its-near-term-applications
Feb 4, 3:25pm: Will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50% by 2025? → By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 63 |
| Volume | M8.5k |
At the time of writing, Paul Christiano's probability estimate for "irreversible catastrophe like human extinction" as a result of AGI misalignment is "around 10-20%". Will he publicly revise his P(AGI doom) upwards to over 50% before 2025?
Videos...