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Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
11%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

The paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965 is under review by the Astrophysical Journal (ApJ). In it we apply causal discovery to astronomical data for the first time. We find that in elliptical galaxies it is the properties of the host galaxy that cause the mass of its central supermassive black hole. Viceversa for spiral galaxies. If correct, this solves a long standing issue (a few decades old) in galaxy evolution.

I am second author, the first author being a Ph.D. student from NYUAD (hi Zehao!). My typical paper gets way fewer citations. My h-index is 20, meaning I only have 20 papers with 20 or more citations. In total I have about 60 papers. The third author has similar stats. More senior authors who appear further down the list have many highly cited papers. Yoshua Bengio is a co-author.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters36
VolumeM2.9k

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Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-29

The paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965 is under review by the Astrophysical Journal (ApJ). In it we apply causal discovery to astronomical data for the first time. We find that in elliptical galaxies it is the properties of the host galaxy that...

Last updated: 2025-05-29
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 36
Volume: M2.9k

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