Any public announcement in a speech or on social media will count.
Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on announcement content:
An announcement stating "The US will recognize Palestine" resolves YES. The signing of a formal deal is not required.
An announcement only stating "We will begin negotiations for a Middle East peace deal" resolves NO, even if accompanied by vague support for Palestinian statehood.
Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding potentially conditional announcements:
If an announcement seems conditional, resolution may be delayed by one week past the market close date.
The creator will evaluate if the condition was met during that additional week before resolving.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 74 |
| Volume | M32k |
Any public announcement in a speech or on social media will count.
Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on announcement content:
An announcement stating "The US will recognize Palestine" resolves YES. The signing...