This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO). It's a much more stringent Turing test than just "person on the street chats informally with a bot and can't tell it from a human". In fact, it's carefully constructed to be a proxy for AGI. Experts who know all the bot's weaknesses get to grill it for hours. Kurzweil and Kapor agree that LLMs as of 2023 don't and can't pass this Turing test.
Personally I think Kapor will win and Kurzweil will lose -- that a computer will not pass this version of the Turing test this decade.
((Bayesian) Update: But I admit the probability has jumped up recently! I created this Manifold market almost a year before ChatGPT launched.)
Related Markets
The inaugural Longbets.org bet
Metaculus's version and Manifold mirror of Metaculus's version
Manifold numerical market for a full probability distribution on the year AGI appears
(Also I had a real-money version on biatob.com for anyone confident that Kurzweil's side has a good chance, but the link keeps breaking)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 938 |
| Volume | M599k |
This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO). It's a much more stringent Turing test than just "person on the street chats informally with a bot and can't tell it from a human". In fact, it's...