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Will we get AGI before September 1st 2027?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
22%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as true if such a system is created and publicly announced before September 1st 2027

Here are markets with the same criteria:

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2027

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-august-1st-2@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-september-1s (this question)

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-october-1st

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2028

Yearwise markets:

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039

Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AGI_circuit_board.png

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters15
VolumeM660

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will we get AGI before September 1st 2027?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-16

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...

Last updated: 2025-06-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M660

Embed #

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