We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
Resolves yes if Apple has an AI tool widely considered top tier at any time by end of year 2025.
If this were to resolve YES today in 2023 Apple would need to have a LLM that is competive with GPT4 and Claud 2. If they had something like Bard I would resolve no.
This is not restricted to LLMs. For instance a top tier photo editing or video editing tool would count. But it has to compete broadly - "the best photo editor phone app" wouldn't count.
Because what counts might get subjective I won't bet on this.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 20 |
| Volume | M1.6k |
Resolves yes if Apple has an AI tool widely considered top tier at any time by end of year 2025.
If this were to resolve YES today in 2023 Apple would need to have a LLM that is competive with GPT4 and Claud 2. If they had something like Bard I...