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Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
78%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

The ARC AGI Prize is a $1,000,000+ public competition aimed at advancing research in artificial general intelligence (AGI) by developing open-source solutions for the ARC-AGI benchmark, which measures the ability to acquire new skills and solve novel problems, unlike current AI models that rely on memorization. The competition encourages a variety of approaches, such as discrete program searches and LLM-based strategies, with the goal of achieving 85% accuracy on the benchmark, reflecting substantial progress towards AGI​.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters33
VolumeM6.1k

Capture #

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Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?
78%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-14

The ARC AGI Prize is a $1,000,000+ public competition aimed at advancing research in artificial general intelligence (AGI) by developing open-source solutions for the ARC-AGI benchmark, which measures the ability to acquire new skills and solve novel...

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 33
Volume: M6.1k

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