From the 2025 ACX Prediction Contest:
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31357)I will resolve based on the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:
Xi Jinping ceases to be the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China or the Communist Party of China ceases to be in control of China.
Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or the Communist Party of Cuba ceases to be in control of Cuba.
Ali Hosseini Khamenei ceases to be the supreme leader of Iran.
Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea.
Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia.
Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 36 |
| Volume | M24k |
From the 2025 ACX Prediction Contest:
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31357)I will resolve based on the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:
Xi...