-Must be a kinetic attack (cyber doesn't count).
-Must be on Iranian soil, not on their assets elsewhere.
-Ships within Iranian national waters or Iranian planes flying above their territory or something like that would still count (so not literally soil meaning ground/Earth).
-Must be confirmed by consensus of media reporting or confirmations from US and Iranian sources or something... covert ops speculated upon by OSINT accounts would not lead to a YES resolution.
-Espionage activities conducted within Iran also would not be sufficient. Must be, like, an "attack", in the common usage of the word.
I will not bet in this market to remain objective.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 69 |
| Volume | M35k |
-Must be a kinetic attack (cyber doesn't count).
-Must be on Iranian soil, not on their assets elsewhere.
-Ships within Iranian national waters or Iranian planes flying above their territory or something like that would still count (so not...