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Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
27%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

The field of quantum computing has experienced unparalleled development in recent years, and has spurned popular interest along with it. Quantum computing offers a unique platform to model complex simulations which classical computers are incapable of processing within a reasonable time span, yet both types of computers can serve as a supplement to each other.

This ability lies in the nature of quantum mechanics, as the basic unit of a quantum computer - called a "qubit" - can oscillate in between a 0 or 1 state, as opposed to regular binary code.

On May 22, 2023, IBM announced their 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computer which would utilize their new modular Quantum System Two design. Along with this, however, IBM's most powerful quantum processor at the moment - Osprey - consists of 433 qubits.

If IBM accomplishes this feat, their new supercomputer could spur breakthroughs in drugs/medicine, batteries, weather prediction, and possibly even age reversal if specific molecules can be found if we find a way to make AI compatible with this kind of machine. The question is: will this happen within the next 10 years? Let me know what y'all think!

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters16
VolumeM1.3k

Capture #

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Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?
27%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-02

The field of quantum computing has experienced unparalleled development in recent years, and has spurned popular interest along with it. Quantum computing offers a unique platform to model complex simulations which classical computers are incapable...

Last updated: 2025-06-02
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 16
Volume: M1.3k

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