MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout

‌

‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌

Will Trump ever be disapproved of by a majority of non-Democrats before his death (if it hasn't already happened)?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
20%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

The pollster must be rated at-least 2.5 stars on 538's pollster ratings https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

The poll most provide enough information to be able to calculate what the average approval rating were be if Democrats polled were to be excluded from the average.

and obviously I have to be made aware of it (and be able to access the full detailed results needed for above calculation). I might miss a just a one off poll where this barely happens so please comment it here if you want a guarantee that I am aware of it.

Example: In this Gallup poll he came pretty close https://news.gallup.com/file/poll/328649/210118TrumpFinal.pdf which gives a 46.8% average disapproval among all R and I's. Close but no cigar. There are probably some that are closer, or perhaps even some that already do pass that threshold however I am only counting polls post the the creation of this question.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters11
VolumeM386

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will Trump ever be disapproved of by a majority of non-Democrats before his death (if it hasn't already happened)?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

The pollster must be rated at-least 2.5 stars on 538's pollster ratings https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

The poll most provide enough information to be able to calculate what the average approval rating were be if Democrats...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M386

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-s6cuE8yLQ2" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

Preview