Resolves YES if sensitive government data is breached via DOGE. Resolves NO otherwise. This can resolve to a percentage if there is a data breach but it's not clear whether it was caused by DOGE.

I will use my judgment to resolve this market and offer the following guidance as to what I am looking for in terms of a data breach.

DOGE includes DOGE initiatives, systems, processes, and employees, including cases where DOGE is working with other government departments.

This does not include authorized release of sensitive data. It does include data being stolen by adversaries, accidentally published on the internet, or being anonymously leaked to newspapers.

Update 2025-02-16: This does not include re-release of data that was publicly available prior to 2025-01-20.

This does not include temporary loss of access to data. It does include permanent loss of data due to ransomware, destructive attacks by adversaries, or accidental deletion of data.

Update 2025-02-16: data loss lasting for several days can also count as a data breach.

This does not include technical breaches of laws or regulations that increased the risk of a breach, if no breach occurs as a result, nobody is prosecuted, and nobody is pardoned. For example, Hillary Clinton's private email server was not a data breach for the purpose of this market.

Update 2025-02-16: This does not include temporary website defacement. It does include attackers gaining write access to sensitive data. It does include other data breaches that occurred during a website defacement attack.

Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Intentional but Unauthorized Release:

Even if a data release is intentional, it must be unauthorized to count as a breach. Examples like the Snowden case illustrate that intentional actions can still be breaches if not properly authorized.

Government Affiliation Clarification:

Although DOGE is part of the government, its actions are not automatically considered authorized. Each incident must be evaluated to determine if the release was unauthorized.

Update 2025-04-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Doge Involvement Clarification:

Only breaches directly caused by DOGE count.

If another agency releases or publishes sensitive data accidentally or otherwise with no DOGE involvement, it does not qualify as a data breach for this market.