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Nominal US Dollars, not PPP adjusted, not inflation adjusted. Resolves prob to 10*((world gdp 2100 / world gdp 2023)^(1/77)-1)
If dollars cease to exist during the interval, I'll use the next largest fiat currency at the last available exchange rate from dollars to that currency. (e.g., if 1 USD = 4 Yuan just before the dollar ceases to exist, then the 2100 world gdp will be measured in Yuan and divided by 4 to convert it to the dollars that no longer exist)
Related arb-able markets:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/what-will-be-the-annualized-nominal)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/what-will-be-the-relative-change-in-c6b0e4fca80a)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 30 |
| Volume | M14k |
Nominal US Dollars, not PPP adjusted, not inflation adjusted. Resolves prob to 10*((world gdp 2100 / world gdp 2023)^(1/77)-1)
If dollars cease to exist during the interval, I'll use the next largest fiat currency at the last available exchange...