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Will any new animal species of at least 1kg be discovered before 2028?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
87%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

Living species. At least one specimen must break 1kg. (For aquatic species, this ignores the weight of water that can be easily removed, e.g. wringing out a sponge.)

In order to resolve YES, the scientific community must come to recognize it as a distinct species in between market creation and close. If there was a debate over whether to consider a variation a different species, that doesn't count.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters33
VolumeM3.5k

Capture #

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Will any new animal species of at least 1kg be discovered before 2028?
87%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-04-10

Living species. At least one specimen must break 1kg. (For aquatic species, this ignores the weight of water that can be easily removed, e.g. wringing out a sponge.)

In order to resolve YES, the scientific community must come to recognize it as a...

Last updated: 2025-04-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 33
Volume: M3.5k

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