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Will a liberal justice leave the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
30%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Resolves YES if at least one of Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, or Ketanji Brown Jackson leaves the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term, and resolves NO otherwise.

"Trump's presidential term" means the current term, lasting until January 20, 2029, even if Trump leaves and Vance takes over.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters14
VolumeM999

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will a liberal justice leave the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-11

Resolves YES if at least one of Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, or Ketanji Brown Jackson leaves the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term, and resolves NO otherwise.

"Trump's presidential term" means the current term, lasting until January...

Last updated: 2025-05-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M999

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-tlsIE2hd99" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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