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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
54%
About Even
Yes

Question description #

EG give it a good movie script, and it generates a movie more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as long as it's pretty good.

Script question:

@/SamuelKnoche/in-early-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-2x8ud6ld4f

The intention of this question is to tease out what difficulties people expect for this question to resolve Yes:

@/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters19
VolumeM1.3k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?
54%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-14

EG give it a good movie script, and it generates a movie more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as long as it's pretty good.

Script...

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M1.3k

Embed #

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