In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner remarks that a tech company might buy an aluminum smelting company for its electricity contracts when discussing the need for immense power in AI training:

Probably the single biggest constraint on the supply-side will be power. Already, at nearer-term scales (1GW/2026 and especially 10GW/2028), power has become the binding constraint: there simply isn’t much spare capacity, and power contracts are usually long-term locked-in. And building, say, a new gigawatt-class nuclear power plant takes a decade. (I’ll wonder when we’ll start seeing things like tech companies buying aluminum smelting companies for their gigawatt-class power contracts.)

This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):

@/Tossup/lasa-will-models-be-able-to-do-the

@/Tossup/lasa-100b-ai-training-cluster-by-th

@/Tossup/lasa-1t-ai-training-cluster-by-the

@/Tossup/lasa-by-the-end-of-2027-will-anyone

@/Tossup/lasa-by-the-end-of-2027-will-there

@/Tossup/lasa-will-a-tech-company-buy-an-alu

@/Tossup/lasa-manhattan-project-for-agi-befo

@/Tossup/lasa-1gw-ai-training-run-before-202

@/Tossup/lasa-10gw-training-run-before-2029

@/Tossup/lasa-100gw-ai-training-run-before-2

Other markets about Leopold's predictions:

@/ZviMowshowitz/will-we-develop-leopolds-dropin-rem