https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan_Airlines_Flight_8243

Resolves YES if by close date a relevant official body of the Russian federation or Chechen republic accept most of the responsibility for the crash.

Relevant bodies include: president, parliament, air crash investigation bodies

Doesn't include: individual investigators speaking for themselves, bloggers, journalists

The statement must acknowledge that Russian/Chechen actions were a primary cause of the crash, but need not admit complete responsibility (so e.g. "Yes, it was hit by out missile, but if the crew immediately cooperated with our air traffic controllers, the plane would have landed safely" or "the plane wouldn't be hit if it followed XXX procedures" resolves YES)

I will not trade due to the soft resolution criteria.

Update 2024-28-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarifications from the Creator:

If the investigation officially concludes that the plane was hit by a Russian missile or similar statements are made, this constitutes a clear YES.

If not, the resolution will depend on parsing the details of the official statement.

Update 2024-28-12 (PST): - If official compensation is provided by the Russian side as if at fault (as demanded by Azerbaijan), this will resolve YES. (AI summary of creator comment)