MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout

‌

‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌

Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
80%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

"broken" means some entity could actually decrypt it in less than 2 years with the amount of compute they have, without possessing the key, and without side-channel leaks.

(Resolution criteria adapted from a similar market:

[link preview])

I know very little about cryptography but have been considering AES-256 to encrypt blog posts, with key to be published posthumously.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters18
VolumeM4.3k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?
80%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-04-21

"broken" means some entity could actually decrypt it in less than 2 years with the amount of compute they have, without possessing the key, and without side-channel leaks.

(Resolution criteria adapted from a similar market:

[link preview])

I know...

Last updated: 2025-04-21
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M4.3k

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-uYIo4IQKQkArbbczaUse" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

Preview