MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout

‌

‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌

Will we see the first AI Agent suicide in Q1 of 2025?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Background

AI agents are software programs designed to perform tasks autonomously, ranging from simple automation to complex decision-making. While AI agents can malfunction, be deactivated, or exhibit unexpected behaviors, the concept of "AI suicide" will be defined as follows:

“did the Agent perform a deliberate autonomous act that completely removed or blocked it’s own ability to function as an agent”

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if in Q1 of 2025:

An AI agent deliberately terminates its own functioning or deletes itself

The termination must be:

Self-initiated (not commanded by humans or other systems)

Not part of its intended programming or normal operation

Documented and verified by reputable sources

Acknowledged by the AI system's developers or maintainers

The market will resolve NO if:

No verified cases of AI self-termination occur in 2025

Cases of AI malfunction, shutdown, or deactivation are caused by external factors or normal operations

Claims of AI "suicide" cannot be verified or are determined to be hoaxes

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters11
VolumeM902

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will we see the first AI Agent suicide in Q1 of 2025?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-10

AI agents are software programs designed to perform tasks autonomously, ranging from simple automation to complex decision-making. While AI agents can malfunction, be deactivated, or exhibit unexpected behaviors, the concept of "AI suicide" will be...

Last updated: 2025-04-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M902

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-ug9pn5IRp9" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

Preview