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Will US unemployment be 15% or more before 2030?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
14%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

"unemployment" refers to the monthly unemployment rate published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The highest ever recorded monthly US unemployment rate was in April 2020, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, at 14.7%.

See data from BLS or St Louis Fed below:

(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1cpNO&width=670&height=475)Will the United States have an unemployment rate of 15% or more in any month before the end of this decade?

See also:

@/cash/will-us-unemployment-be-10-or-more

@/cash/will-us-unemployment-be-20-or-more

@/cash/will-us-unemployment-be-25-or-more

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters48
VolumeM2.6k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will US unemployment be 15% or more before 2030?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-29

"unemployment" refers to the monthly unemployment rate published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The highest ever recorded monthly US unemployment rate was in April 2020, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, at 14.7%.

See data from...

Last updated: 2025-04-29
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 48
Volume: M2.6k

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