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Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
30%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to Artificial Intelligence systems. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.

I.e. resolves YES if both of the following resolve YES:

https://manifold.markets/jack/global-catastrophe-series-by-2100-w and

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/

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Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters14
VolumeM3.4k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-25

This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to Artificial Intelligence systems. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.

I.e....

Last updated: 2025-05-25
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M3.4k

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-wn5c8MBJNO0BfGjLmyJ2" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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