Resolves to YES if Meta enters into the same commitment, and shares their next major model release with the USA AISI in advance, or if Meta announces it will no longer be in the frontier model business.
Resolves to NO if Meta releases Llama 4, any model bigger than 500B or another major release without sharing with the USA AISI, or deadline passes and no commitment has been made.
(Note: Open/closed status of the model is irrelevant to this market.)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 29 |
| Volume | M2.4k |
Resolves to YES if Meta enters into the same commitment, and shares their next major model release with the USA AISI in advance, or if Meta announces it will no longer be in the frontier model business.
Resolves to NO if Meta releases Llama 4, any...