Background: The CFTC ruled that PredictIt must cease operating prediction markets in the US. Many have speculated that Kalshi was primarily responsible for the shutdown. Apparently someone filed a Freedom of Information request about the CFTC's ruling. See https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-july-2022 for more.

Will a FOIA request reveal that Kalshi was primarily responsible for the CFTC's ruling to shut down PredictIt?

Resolves YES if after a FOIA request to the CFTC about this topic is fulfilled, any of the following occur:

Nuño Sempere posts that in his opinion, the FOIA request revealed that Kalshi was primarily responsible for the CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt

Nuño posts that he believes the chance that Kalshi caused PredictIt's shutdown was at least 75%

Resolves NO if any of the following occur:

A FOIA request to the CFTC about this topic is fulfilled and provides sufficiently clear evidence that Kalshi was not primarily responsible for the decision, as judged by Nuño.

None of the above events occur by the end of 2025.

For reference, Nuño states his current beliefs as:

My independent opinion is that there is a fair chance that Kalshi caused the previous Polymarket fall from grace in the eyes of the CFTC (60%), and a lower chance that they caused this one (40%).

If Nuño is not available as a resolution source or does not post an opinion within 3 months of the fulfillment of a relevant FOIA request, I will resolve in my best judgement.

For more background, see:

https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-july-2022

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket

https://karlstack.substack.com/p/a-textbook-case-of-regulatory-capture

Related markets:

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-predictit-still-be-operating-m

https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/why-was-predictit-shut-down