This market resolves Yes if:
Trump releases or begins to implement some sort of economic plan (e.g. tariffs)
The stock or bond markets crash in response
Trump does not implement the announced plans due to the market crash
This market resolves N/A if Trump does not assume the presidency in 2025.
Update 2025-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria:
The market will not resolve NO under any circumstance until January 1, 2026.
Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market Crash Confirmation:
The referenced stock market crash confirms that the first part of the resolution criteria has been met.
Tariffs Implementation Update:
If the announced tariffs are not implemented or are walked back, the market will resolve YES.
There is a leaning towards resolving YES if Congress blocks the tariffs as well.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 22 |
| Volume | M5.2k |
This market resolves Yes if:
Trump releases or begins to implement some sort of economic plan (e.g. tariffs)
The stock or bond markets crash in response
Trump does not implement the announced plans due to the market crash
This market resolves N/A...