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Will I judge GPT-5 to be smarter than o1 (not preview) after both are released?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
81%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

Resolves subjectively, based on my analysis of benchmarks both official, third party, and my own.

Some examples of benchmarks I consider are MMLU, ZebraLogic, SWE-bench, simplebench, ARC, and livebench.

Some of my own evals are game-playing (tic-tac-toe, and connect 4), and creative writing (giving a model 3 random nouns and asking it to write a story involving them)

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters17
VolumeM1.8k

Capture #

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Will I judge GPT-5 to be smarter than o1 (not preview) after both are released?
81%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-17

Resolves subjectively, based on my analysis of benchmarks both official, third party, and my own.

Some examples of benchmarks I consider are MMLU, ZebraLogic, SWE-bench, simplebench, ARC, and livebench.

Some of my own evals are game-playing...

Last updated: 2025-05-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M1.8k

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