Resolves to my judgement. If Tumbles pays off his creditors, or re-negotiates all his loans such that he no longer owes mana, that will count. Only counts peer to peer loans (not manifold).

Resolves NO if Tumbles still owes (uncancelled or un-negotiated) loans. This will be extended if Tumbles has negotiated a late payment. If Tumbles gives up on repaying his creditors, resolves YES

I will not bet in this market.