We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
Based on 538 aggregate approval on January 20 2029 (Trump) vs January 20 2025 (Biden). A suitable replacement aggregator will be found if necessary.
Resolves N/A if either Trump isn’t president on the morning of January 20 2029.
If Trump refuses to leave office the question will still resolve based on his approval rating on January 20.
Tie resolves TRUE.
Biden’s approval rating on Jan 20 2025: 37%
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 18 |
| Volume | M400 |
Based on 538 aggregate approval on January 20 2029 (Trump) vs January 20 2025 (Biden). A suitable replacement aggregator will be found if necessary.
Resolves N/A if either Trump isn’t president on the morning of January 20 2029.
If Trump refuses to...