Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?

Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons are weapons that destroy or damage satellites in orbit. Several of these have been developed and tested. However, they have not been used in warfare.

ASAT weapons in warfare have a variety of uses, including disrupting communications, reconnaissance, and navigation systems. Development and deployment of such systems continues, and has been called an emerging arms race.

Recently, Russia has threatened to use such weapons in relation to the war in Ukraine.

Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?

This question will resolve as Yes if a consensus of credible sources reports a state actor has used an ASAT weapon to damage a manmade orbital target which that state does not own before January 1, 2024, without the permission of the owner of the manmade orbital target. The damage must be physical, cyberattacks do not qualify.