Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?

The US Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics created the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) in the 2000s to address shortcomings of the Official Poverty Measure (OPM). Unlike the OPM, the SPM adjusts for in-kind benefits, tax liabilities, and local housing costs. For these reasons, poverty researchers generally prefer the SPM over the OPM.

The Census Bureau typically reports the SPM and OPM each September, along with the Current Population Survey March Supplement data upon which they're both calculated. In September 2021, they reported the 2020 SPM as 9.1 percent, down from 11.8 percent in 2019.

Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?

This question will resolve positively if the 2022 Supplemental Poverty Measure exceeds its 2021 value. In each year from 2014 to 2021, the Census Bureau has reported the SPM between September 12 and October 14.