Related Question on Metaculus:
Russia's economy has been devastated by Western sanctions since 2014. The new sanctions imposed on it internationally because of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022 carry heavy costs.
The Central Bank of Russia foreign reserves were frozen, resulting in the inability of the Central Bank to do market interventions to change the currency exchange rates. The Moscow Stock Exchange trading was canceled on Monday Feb 28 2022 and then this cancellation was extended for the whole week. Bank runs happened and the government prohibited foreign investors from selling their Russian security positions and prohibited Russian residents to send money to overseas accounts. Russian dollar-denominated bonds fell more than 50% on Monday Feb 28 2022.
On top of the imminent economic crisis caused by sanctions on banking, other sanctions on Russia are expected to have damaging long-term consequences across industries. Many EU states and Russia closed their airspace for each other's airlines. EU prohibited Russia from leasing airplanes (the vast majority of aircraft used for domestic flights are leased in Russia) and providing aircraft maintenance. The US blocked the export of critical advanced technologies to Russia, including restrictions on semiconductors, telecommunications, avionics.
Russia's nominal GDP was increasing with high velocity during 2000-2008 but then was battered by the Great Recession, 2014 western sanctions and COVID.
|Number of forecasts||856|
<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-10039" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />